Swine flu

2009-05-07T00:36:00.000-07:00

Article1
Mexico shuts down to control flu

Mexico is beginning a five-day shutdown of parts of its economy in a bid to slow the spread of swine flu.

Non-essential government services will stop, while businesses like cinemas and restaurants will be shut. Traditional May Day rallies have been cancelled.
Mexican officials say the spread of the virus - suspected in more than 160 deaths - is slowing, but international experts are more cautious.
China has now confirmed its first case, taking the tally of nations hit to 14.
In cases outside Mexico the virus does not appear to be severe, although one death has been confirmed in the US.

The WHO has set its pandemic alert level at five - but says it has no immediate plans to move to the highest level of six.

Economy fears
The shut-down in Mexico covers two public holidays and a weekend.
CONFIRMED CASES
· Mexico: 168 suspected deaths - 12 confirmed
· US: one death, at least 109 confirmed cases
· New Zealand: 4 confirmed, 12 probable cases
· Canada: 34 confirmed cases
· UK: 8 confirmed cases
· Spain: 13 confirmed cases
· Germany: 4 confirmed cases
· Israel, Costa Rica: 2 confirmed cases each
· The Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Hong Kong: 1 confirmed case each Countries with confirmed cases of secondary transmission
· US
· Canada
· Spain
· Germany

It extends nationwide a policy already in place in the capital, Mexico City, where most restaurants, cinemas and bars have been closed since last weekend.

City authorities say initial evidence suggests infection rates there are slowing.
Some factories will stop production and schools are already closed. Residents have been urged to stay at home.

But some people say they will ignore it because they cannot afford not to work.
There is also growing concern at the effect the virus could have on Mexico's already-struggling economy.

The number of confirmed cases of swine flu infection in Mexico now stands at about 300, officials say. Twelve people are known to have died from the virus and it is suspected in more than 160 other deaths.

Announcing the figures, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said that new cases of the virus were levelling off.

"The fact that we have a stabilisation in the daily numbers, even a drop, makes us optimistic," he said. But Dr Keiji Fukuda, acting assistant director general of the World Health Organization, said fluctuations were to be expected. "If it didn't do that [it] would be very unusual," he said.
In other developments:
• The US has announced that it will buy 13 million new courses of antiviral treatment and send 400,000 of them to Mexico
• An aide to US Energy Secretary Stephen Chu who helped arrange President Obama's recent trip to Mexico is being tested for swine flu, AP reports, although the aide is said not to have been in contact with the president
• Swine flu is confirmed in a Mexican traveller arriving in Hong Kong, the first case in China
• Denmark reports its first confirmed case of swine flu
• German authorities confirm that a nurse who treated a patient with swine flu also contracted the disease, in the first person-to-person transmission in the country
• Test results are expected to confirm the UK's first person-to-person transmission of swine flu, in a friend of a couple from Scotland who were first in the country to be diagnosed with the virus
• Mexico says it will lodge a formal challenge at the World Trade Organisation demanding explanations from countries that have banned imports of Mexican pork products
'No panic'
On Thursday European health ministers held an emergency meeting on measures to tackle the virus, which has been confirmed in six European countries.
SYMPTOMS - WHAT TO DO
· Swine flu symptoms are similar to those produced by ordinary seasonal flu - fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, chills and fatigue
· If you have flu symptoms and recently visited affected areas of Mexico, you should seek medical advice
· If you suspect you are infected, you should stay at home and take advice by telephone initially, in order to minimise the risk of infection

EU Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou said Europe was well prepared to handle swine flu and there was "no need to panic".

The ministers agreed to work with pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine, but rejected a French plan to suspend flights to Mexico.
Several countries have restricted travel to Mexico and many tour operators have cancelled holidays.
The WHO, meanwhile, says it will now call the virus influenza A (H1N1) rather than swine flu - which it says is misleading as pork meat is safe and the virus is being transmitted from human to human.
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Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/8028169.stm

Article2

Swine flu dampens economic outlook, markets mixed
Mon Apr 27, 2009 4:56pm EDT

By Dena Aubin

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fears that an outbreak of swine flu could become a pandemic brought a new threat to the global economy on Monday, just as some economic indicators appeared to be bottoming out.

Mexicans returned to work in large numbers after the weekend, despite worries over a virus that has killed up to 149 people there, and spread to the United States, Canada and Europe, but economists have warned that a global outbreak of deadly flu would seriously curtail economic activity.

The World Bank estimated in 2008 that a flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion and result in a nearly 5 percent drop in world gross domestic product.
An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which disrupted travel, trade and workplaces in 2003, cost the Asia Pacific region an estimated $40 billion. It lasted six months and killed 775 of the 8,000 people it infected in 25 countries.

The current flu outbreak tempered optimism that the global downturn could be starting to slow after governments committed trillions of dollars to interventions and stimulus.
"We almost have to wait to see not so much the contagion aspect but how deadly is this," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. While a mild strain may have a limited impact, "if you start getting a number of fatalities, then it ramps the issue up substantially at every level, from a human standpoint and from an economic standpoint," he said.

In Washington, the Obama administration said it was too soon to determine the potential economic impact but U.S. Treasury officials were monitoring the situation.
Regardless of the effect of the virus on the global economy, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he did not see a global economic recovery before 2010.
Strauss-Kahn told CNBC television he hoped the worst was over but that "green shoots" in the global economy were mostly in the United States.
HOW LOW?

A Reuters survey of analysts across European and the United States taken April 21-27 found a slim majority saying the bottom had yet to be hit in the worst global recession since World War Two. The vast bulk of them said the crisis would last anywhere from six months to another two years.
"Financial and macroeconomic stability are still some way off and we don't yet have the foundation for a solid recovery," said Lena Komileva, chief G7 market economist at interdealer broker Tullett Prebon.

Mexico's peso dropped more than 4 percent and U.S. stocks fell in volatile trading as investors fretted about the flu outbreak. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 0.6 percent.
European shares recovered from early losses, with the FTSEurofirst 300 index closing up 0.4 percent. Airline and leisure-related stocks were hit by fears the outbreak would hurt travel but drug makers rose on hopes the virus would result in strong vaccine sales.
Separately, General Motors Corp said it would close plants, eliminate brands and exchange $27 billion of bonds for equity in a last ditch effort to avoid bankruptcy and earn continued government support.

Despite risks of more financial turbulence, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said lowering interest rates is not necessarily the best way to fight a recession.
"Our actions have been different from those taken by other central banks, reflecting differences in economic and financial structures," he said of the ECB's reaction to the crisis in a speech to the Foreign Policy Association in New York. "Indeed, given the different economic structures, they need to be different to reach the same objective."

The ECB meets on May 7 and markets expect it to cut the benchmark interest rate from 1.25 percent to 1.0 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting on Tuesday and is expected to leave benchmark rates at or near zero.
Earlier, other European Central Bank policymakers suggested further reductions in the main refinancing rate but differed as to how far they should go.
The delicate state of the global economy was underlined by the Japanese government, which cut its economic forecasts on Monday, saying gross domestic product would shrink 3.3 percent over the next year.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates near zero when it meets on Thursday but has maintained a cautious view on the global outlook. BOJ Governor Masaaki Sharakawa has signaled the BOJ's monthly policy review will predict a gradual recovery toward the end of this year or early in 2010.
(Reporting by Reuters correspondents worldwide; Writing by Dena Aubin; Editing by Patricia Zengerle)

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE53Q0DY20090427

Article3
Stocks Drop on Swine Flu, Economy Concern; Treasuries, Yen Gain

By Sarah Jones
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks declined around the world, Treasuries gained and the yen strengthened as the swine flu outbreak spread and Lawrence Summers said the U.S. economy will keep shrinking.

Air France-KLM Group, Europe’s largest airline, British Airways Plc, and InterContinental Hotels Group Plc retreated more than 4 percent after the swine-flu outbreak spread beyond Mexico and the U.S. as the American government declared a public health emergency. Roche Holding AG and

GlaxoSmithKline Plc advanced more than 4 percent as authorities seek a broader range of medicines to protect against a pandemic.
The MSCI World Index dropped for the first time in five days, slipping 0.7 percent at 8:13 a.m. in London. The gauge of 23 developed countries has rebounded 27 percent since March 9 as companies from American Express Co. and Ford Motor Co. to Italy’s Eni SpA posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.

“News over the weekend of a deadly flu outbreak is rocking financial markets,” said Matt Buckland, a London-based dealer at CMC Markets. “This pattern is expected to follow in Europe.”
Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 1.7 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent, reversing an earlier advance of 1.4 percent.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2.1 percent. The U.S. economy will experience “sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year,” Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, said yesterday on “Fox News Sunday.”

Yen, Peso

The yen rose against the dollar and Treasuries advanced as investors sought havens from a prolonged recession. The yen strengthened to 96.57 per dollar in London from 97.17 last week in New York. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell six basis points to 2.93 percent, according to BG Cantor Market Data.
The Mexican peso declined 2.2 percent to 13.6402 per dollar after more than 80 people died of swine flu in the nation.
Air France slid 8.1 percent to 8.25 euros. France is investigating four possible cases of swine flu, including three in one family in the north of the country and one woman in the Paris region, officials said.

British Airways tumbled 11 percent to 145.2 pence, while InterContinental, owner of the Holiday Inn lodging brand, declined 4.1 percent to 644.5 pence after a growing number of swine flu cases led the U.S. government to release stockpiles of medicine. Japan, Malaysia and Singapore said they are screening passengers at checkpoints for fever, while Hong Kong raised its swine-flu response level.

Roche, which said it has an ample supply of the Tamiflu treatment that can reduce the symptoms of swine flu, added 5.1 percent to 146.7 pence. Glaxo, which said it will make its anti- flu medicine Relenza at full capacity in Australia, added 4.2 percent to 1,048 pence.
Merck, Aviva
Merck KGaA added 1.1 percent to 67.11 euros even after the company posted a 76 percent drop in first-quarter profit to 56.7 million euros ($74.7 million) as the global recession damped demand for liquid crystals used in flat-panel televisions and monitors.
Aviva Plc climbed 5 percent to 287 pence. The U.K.’s biggest insurer said its capital surplus increased to 2.5 billion pounds ($3.64 billion) at the end of the first quarter from 2 billion pounds three months earlier.
The insurer’s first-quarter revenue from its life and pension business rose to 9.6 billion pounds from 8.6 billion pounds a year earlier, while sales in North America increased 84 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 27, 2009 03:22 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=acI2yHtQVXMQ&pid=20601087#

Article4

Flu and the global economy The butcher's bill
Apr 30th 2009 LONDON AND MEXICO CITY From The Economist print edition

Recession may dampen the economic cost of a swine-flu epidemic

THE scares over bird flu since 1997 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 have spurred research into the economic costs of pandemics. Studies paint a grim picture of what swine flu could mean for the world economy. For example, World Bank economists estimated last year that a pandemic with death rates similar to those in the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918-19 could shrink global GDP by 4.8%.

Although such research can help to identify the economic effects of swine flu, global recession means that some of the mechanisms it describes are already at work. The recession means, perhaps counterintuitively, that the incremental economic effect of a pandemic may be less dramatic than it would be in normal times.

Economists argue that a pandemic would affect both global demand and global supply, but that the first of these is particularly vulnerable to the uncertainty and fear surrounding even the possibility of widespread disease. That would cause consumer spending to fall and businesses to put investment plans on hold.

Asia’s experience with SARS is a guide. The outbreak caused a sharp drop in private consumption in the economies it affected. People avoided going out—as they are doing in Mexico. On April 29th the country’s president, Felipe Calderón, announced a national suspension of non-essential activities from May 1st to May 5th. The cancelling of sporting events and concerts, the closing of bars and nightclubs, and people’s propensity to stay inside had already cost Mexico City’s service and retail industries $55m a day from April 24th, when authorities first closed schools. That sum was expected to double after a ban on restaurants seating customers.
Financial markets have reacted sharply: the peso has fallen by 5.5% against the dollar since the emergency began. Mexico’s finance minister, Agustín Carstens, has said that he expects the economic cost to be 0.3-0.5% of GDP, based on Asian precedents. Luis Flores, an economist at IXE, a bank, reckons that the government’s budget deficit could increase by 0.7% of GDP.
This outbreak has happened when, worldwide, consumer confidence is low. So any further drops in demand because of a swine-flu pandemic may be smaller than those caused by SARS, when airline-passenger arrivals in Hong Kong fell by nearly two-thirds in a month. But a pandemic would dent hopes of a rapid recovery from recession, by providing yet another reason for gloom to continue.

The uncertainty caused by a pandemic could hit investment too. Risk premiums for countries affected by the pandemic might rise. And worries about safety, justified or not, pose risks to trade. Already, China has banned Mexican pork, though there is no evidence to suggest that meat spreads flu viruses. World trade is already plummeting. Widespread reactions of this sort could steepen its dive.

More than fear itself

The potential supply-side effects of a pandemic come mainly because people fall ill or die. Infected people cannot work, and others must take time off to care for them. This has an immediate effect on the size of the labour force, but with consequences that last many years. The future output of those who die is lost. That is especially important when people of working age are taken. The worst economic consequences of AIDS have come from death and sickness among young adults.
The worldwide costs from deaths and hospitalisation are hard to calculate in the absence of information about medical costs in each country. However, Martin Meltzer, Nancy Cox and Keiji Fukuda, now deputy director-general of the World Health Organisation, did the sums for America in a paper in 1999. They found that a pandemic affecting 15-35% of the population would have cost between $71.3 billion and $166.5 billion (in 1999 dollars).
The bulk of this would come from forgoing all that the sick and the dead would have produced. In other words, it is an estimate of the effect on the potential output of the American economy. Because of the global slump, many more people are already out of work than in normal times. This probably means that the immediate cost of additional losses in output would be smaller than in the estimates made by Mr Meltzer, Ms Cox and Mr Fukuda.

Several studies have put all this together to estimate the overall impact of a pandemic on economic growth. In 2006 Warwick McKibbin and Alexandra Sidorenko found in a study for the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney that even a mild pandemic could shave 0.8% off world GDP. For the worst possibility they considered, the drop would be a staggering 12.6%. They reckon a pandemic similar to the one that began in 1918 would reduce growth in the American economy by 3 percentage points and in Japan by 8.3 points. Roughly comparable numbers emerge from a study by economists at America’s Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which found that a Spanish-flu-like pandemic would lower real GDP growth in America by about 5 points. Even a milder episode would lead to a 1.5-point drop.
These are large declines. The CBO notes that a severe pandemic would be like a typical post-war recession. As it happens, the worries about swine flu come when the world is already in its worst slump since the war. That would dampen the economic effects of a pandemic. But if a pandemic does occur, this would be small comfort indeed.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13576491

Article 5

Swine flu impact: Tourism industry could be big loser as nations warn against travel to U.S.
BY Lore Croghan and Helen Kennedy DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERS
Monday, April 27th 2009, 1:06 AM

New York businesses worried Sunday that scary headlines about swine flu could keep tourists away - and hurt their bottom line.
And they have reason to worry: Italy, Poland, Venezuela and Hong Kong already have advised citizens not to travel to the United States.

"If it spreads, and I think it will, we'll lose 30% of our revenues," said Dave Schulter, 49, of Dyker Heights, Brooklyn, who sells handbags on a Times Square streetcorner.
Alirio Gonzalez, manager of the gift shop at the Crowne Plaza Times Square Hotel, predicted tourists will start canceling reservations unless authorities in the U.S. and Mexico can quickly control the spread of the disease.
"This hotel is like a thermometer," said Gonzalez, 45, of Union City, N.J. "It takes the temperature of tourism."

Dominic Raiano, 52, who sells New York-themed T-shirts nearby, also said he's certain fewer visitors will come to the city if the flu keeps spreading. The hawker's sales are already down 60% because of the bad economy; now he fears they'll take a double hit.
City tourism officials did not respond to requests for information about plans to combat the effect of the scare.
Despite the new concern, tourists who swarmed sweltering midtown sidewalks said swine flu wouldn't keep them away. "No disrespect, but Yanks panic too quickly," said George Jones, 52, visiting from Northern Ireland.

But the panic is real abroad.

Besides countries urging their citizens not to come to the U.S., at Tokyo's Narita Airport, officials have started taking the temperature of every passenger arriving from Mexico.
China and Russia have plans for mass quarantines, even though no cases have been reported there. And Hong Kong and Taiwan said visitors who came back from flu-affected areas with a fever would be held in isolation until they get better.
The Philippines ordered anyone arriving from America to be screened for flu symptoms and banned U.S. and Mexican pork - even though you can't get flu from food. Russia also banned pork products from the U.S.
Cases have begun popping uparound the world, though so far the only deaths have been in Mexico.

New Zealand said 10 students who came home sick from a school trip to Mexico likely had swine flu. An Israeli man, four French citizens, seven Spaniards and two Scots - all recent travelers to Mexico - were suspected of having swine flu. Canada confirmed six cases, all mild.
In Mexico, fear kept millions home. Restaurants sat empty, schools were closed and church pews were abandoned as the faithful listened to Mass on radio.
"Grant us the prudence and serenity to act with responsibility and to avoid being infected or to infect others," Norberto Cardinal Rivera asked the Virgin of Guadalupe, Mexico's patron saint.
Soccer games were played in empty stadiums. Bars, ordered closed for 10 days by the government, were all shuttered.

American Airlines, Continental Airlines and US Airways all announced they would waive the normal fees for customers who wanted to change their travel plans to Mexico.
lcroghan@nydailynews.com
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/04/27/2009-04-27_swine_impact_tourism_could_be_big_loser.html

My reaction: According to experts, the swine flu is expected to have tremendous negative effects on the world economy. The swine flu will have direct effects on the tourism sector. However, after reading these articles I think that the effects won’t be as great as people are expecting it to be since the economy is already in recession. On the other hand, while I personally think that the Americans are slightly overreacting to the situation, the Mexicans and Europeans are slightly ignorant by thinking that they have the situation in control already.

1. The world economy has been in recession since last year’s crash, so the expected effects of the swine flu pandemic are going to be less than assumed. The recession has already done some of the damage the swine flu would have done, so overall the swine flu pandemic effects should be less dramatic than normal.

2. Experts are predicting how bad the effects of the pandemic will be by looking at past global diseases like SARS, the bird flu, and the Spanish flu. I don’t think you can really determine from past events, how this one is going to turn out. People are not sure what this new strain of virus is capable of and since they have been dealing with pandemics in the past, why would they expect effects to be as great as before?

3. The article mentions that EU Health Commissioner A. Vassiliou stated that Europe was well prepared to handle swine flu and there was no need to panic. I think that this statement is ignorant since there are already reported cases of the swine flu in the EU. Right now, people aren’t sure of the entire capabilities of the virus, and since there has been a case reported in Germany that a nurse caught the virus from the patient, why shouldn’t people panic? There obviously is a great need for panic if the virus can be contracted to easily.

4. Mexican officials are claiming that new cases of the swine flu are decreasing and that there is stabilization in daily numbers. Just because they have a drop in cases doesn’t mean officials can rest at peace. Research states that it is normal for a virus to do this. Hence, there is no need for the Mexicans to be all optimistic about the situation.

5. In New York, the panic is big and people are suspecting that the virus will scare away tourists. Local street vendors are assuming that as much 30% of their income could disappear. Again, I agree that the swine flu will impact tourism since flights to the US from some countries are prohibited for now but then again it may not be as worse as the Yanks are expecting. I think that right now, it’s a little too early to tell and since people have dealt with SARS before, everyone is more prepared.

6. The articles state that although, the Mexican economy is facing a five day shutdown and people are advised to stay in their homes, a number of Mexicans are not cooperating as they can’t afford not to work. While, the whole situation is already putting a strain on the size of the labour work force, the Mexicans who refuse to stay home may lengthened these effects. Should they get infected right before the situation is in control, they won’t be able to work anyhow and would need to take time off to take care of themselves. Clearly, instead of having a poor labor size during the chaos itself, it could actually be further lengthened even if the situation already is on control.

7. The WHO has set the swine flu to an alert level at five. I feel that we do not have a pandemic yet although the infection has spread worldwide. The number of fatalities is still low at less than 400 people, and most deaths have occurred in Mexico. So far there have only been two reported fatal case in the US. Maybe the virus is not as dangerous as we think, and fatalities have been caused due to poor conditions in Mexico. When SARS broke up, it was only set at an alert level of four and I think that at that time its effects were more severe than what is happening with the swine flu now.

Conclusion: Overall, I think that people are overreacting with the swine flu pandemic and it is probably not as severe as expected. I’m not even sure that the swine flu should be considered a pandemic. I think that the articles are over exaggerating and giving people more worries and panic than they should have. I think that authorities around the world are better prepared to deal with the situation than they know and it won’t take along until it is taken in control.

Rurdee Lee

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